Tesla delivery-target miss shows ‘demand cracks clearly happening’ that mean ‘numbers could materially reset’ for coming years, analysts write

Tesla’s stock posted its worst performance in its history in the fourth quarter, resulting in fewer sales than analysts expected, according to Monday’s announcement.

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The company produced 439,701 vehicles and reports 405,278 vehicles were delivered in the last three months of the year, up 31.3% from the same period last year. For the full year, Tesla sold 1.31 million cars, an increase of about 40% from 2021, while producing about 1.37 million.

“All things considered…I am very proud of the team that delivered this result,” said Martin Viecha, Tesla’s Head of Investor Relations. said on Twitter“Smoother shipping patterns require more vehicles in transit, which is the reason for production. [exceeds] delivery.

detail: Tesla investors await clues on demand and board action, weigh downside risks in 2023

Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 427,000 cars on average, according to FactSet, and the miss doesn’t reduce whispers about potential problems with demand for Tesla’s electric vehicles. Concerns about demand in China, where Tesla is already facing competition from many other electric car makers, are not only due to price cuts, but also to Tesla’s decision after years of outstanding purchase requests as production ramps up. , suggesting that they are currently struggling to sell cars.

“Many investors underestimate the magnitude of the demand challenge facing Tesla and believe the 2023/24 numbers could be effectively reset,” Bernstein said. analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note Monday. “We are also concerned that rising interest rates and slowing consumer spending could put pressure on the broader market, which continues to disproportionately impact highly valued stocks such as TSLA,” he said.

Sacconaghi has an underperforming rating and a price target of $150, but even more bullish analysts are aware of the problem. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in his email to MarketWatch: [are] obviously with tesla [fourth quarter] The numbers are not bullish.

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Analysts now expect Tesla deliveries to rise to 1.92 million units in 2023 as Tesla executives continue to forecast a 50% annual increase in deliveries. Only one quarter of the year has Tesla been able to meet or exceed that target.

Analysts had lowered their profit and delivery estimates for 2023 before these official results were released. The average forecast at the end of the third quarter was $2.12 million, or $6.13 per share, but fell to $1.92 million, or $5.59 per share, by the end of the year, according to FactSet.

Tesla’s stock hit its worst month, quarter and year ever as it heads towards sales results announced Monday. Tesla’s stock price is finally down 65% in 2022 thanks to a 53.6% drop in the last three months of the year, along with the S&P 500 index SPX.
It fell 19.4%, the worst year since 2008.

See also Tesla Isn’t Alone — The Other 20 (Half) Big Stocks Have Their Worst Years Ever

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